Analysis of the electorate

The impact of various demographic subgroups on the result

Please pardon my absence due to a cold for several days. I am slowly on the mend.

I hope readers of this column have given praise (Psalm 117) and thanks (Psalm 150) for the miraculous delivery of America from open borders big pharma cultural Marxism. Donald Trump’s victory in the electoral college, popular vote, both houses of Congress, a majority of governorships, should clarify to one and all that MAGA has a national mandate.

I want to discuss the breadth of that mandate in this post, discussing the exit poll results posted on Wikipedia, sourced from CNN. For the record, I don’t completely trust the accuracy of these numbers. It shows Trump with 22% support among Jews. That is ludicrous. New York state Jews responded shortly before the election to a poll with over 40% support for Trump (probably double that among Orthodox Jews), and New York state has the largest Jewish population in the country. Take these results with a grain of salt.

Here are some of the noteworthy large demographic categories.

• Men broke for Trump, women for Harris.

• Married people broke for Trump, unmarried people for Harris.

• Trump was supported by married men, married women, and unmarried men. Only unmarried women broke for Harris. (These four categories are approximately the same size.)

• Whites broke for Trump. Latinos and Asians supported Harris, but not overwhelmingly. Only blacks overwhelmingly supported Harris.

• White men, white women, and Latino men broke for Trump. Latina women supported Harris; black men more strongly; black women the most strongly, by an incredible 84-point margin.

• Both Protestants and Catholics broke for Trump.

• Blacks over age 65 supported Harris by an incredible 88-point margin.

• People with an associate’s degree, high school diploma, or less broke for Trump. People with a bachelor’s degree or more broke for Harris, more strongly if they held a graduate degree. The median voter has an associate’s degree.

• In CNN’s five income brackets, Harris won the poorest one and the richest two, while Trump took the middle. So much for the Democrats being advocates for the little guy.

• People who were motivated by support for their candidate broke for Trump. People who were motivated by opposition to the other candidate broke for Harris. Trump’s voters voted for him. Harris’s voters voted against Trump.

• People who want stronger American support for Israel broke strongly for Trump. People who want weaker American support for Israel broke strongly for Harris.

For each of the 164 categories in the poll, I computed the net Trump support (Trump support minus Harris support). However, even a group with net support +100% or -100% will not make much difference to the results if it constitutes less than 1% of the population. Therefore I computed a new number, called the impact, using the formula:

impact = Trump net support times fraction of the population

I explored which demographics had a large impact on the results.

• People without a religious affiliation pushed the vote 13% towards Harris.

• Whites without a college degree pushed the vote 11% towards Trump.

• Non-whites pushed the vote 11% towards Harris.

• Blacks pushed the vote 10% towards Harris.

It astonishes me to see substantial demographics that have an 80%+ bias towards one party. I am relieved that Trump made some progress with black men, especially younger ones and married ones; with Latino men; and with white women, especially married ones.

The cabinet nominations announced in the last few days suggest to me a real determination to accomplish the unfinished MAGA agenda from Trump’s first term. Godspeed Donald Trump and the United States of America.