Current electoral map: August 7, 2024

Combining the great tools available at https://www.realclearpolling.com/ and https://www.270towin.com/, I have a new electoral map to share with you.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/bn9p6

Based on Real Clear Politics polling averages, I allocated swing states as follows.

• Harris: MI, NH, VA, WI

• Trump: AZ, NV, NC

• Undecided: GA, PA

Pennsylvania is a must win state for both parties under my assumptions.

270 To Win cites Georgia as leaning towards Trump. However, in Real Clear Politics, the polling average for Georgia gives Trump only a slight lead, 0.8%, well within the margin of error (about 1.8%). Thus Georgia should not be taken for granted as a Republican lock. Even it did, as the map shows above, it would still not be enough to guarantee a Trump win, bringing Trump only to 268 electoral votes.

I am very concerned that Harris has been polling so much better than Biden: see https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Hopefully this is just a “honeymoon” period, until the general public learns the socialist tendencies of Harris-Walz. I had a similar optimism in 2008 and 2012, which turned out to be ill-founded.

My presidential election model, which performs so well on the 1952-2016 elections, calls for a convincing Biden victory this time around. The question never arose in previous elections about the withdrawal and replacement of a presidential candidate by someone who won not a single primary vote. That will make this year fascinating to watch.