IQ and fertility

The engine driving the Great Replacement

Recently, we discussed my Freedom Development index, which combines several variables intended to measure the quality of life.

As I look at X daily, I often see Elon Musk re-posting someone else’s post regarding the sinking human fertility rate, at least with regard to Western countries. He correctly identifies this phenomenon as something with the capacity to destroy civilization. (He is a bit hypocritical, as he has helped to develop the artificial intelligence technology that will destroy hundreds of millions of jobs in the next several years.)

Out of curiosity, I created a new data set with the 31 largest countries (large economies and/or large populations), to see if per capita income predicts fertility rates. The answer is yes, in a negative fashion; wealthier countries have fewer children, and that is statistically significant.

This much was not news to me. Then I brought into the data set a new variable: average national IQ. I left that out of my original data set, not connecting IQ to quality of life. Most of the largest democides of the 20th century were committed in countries having high IQ, so I was not naive enough to believe that intelligence equates to good character.

Once I added national IQ to the data set, I was surprised by the result. The strongest correlation of all between two distinct variables was the negative correlation between IQ and fertility. This was even more significant than the correlation between per capita income and fertility. Here is the graphic.

Average national IQ is on the horizontal axis, and fertility rate is on the vertical axis. I highlighted the dividing line for survival, which is usually defined as 2.1 to be on the safe side (accounting for childhood deaths), but which I drew at 2. Only 6 of the 31 major countries can replace their own population.

Notice how closely the points hug the curve. R-squared measures the predictive power of the model, on a scale from 0 to 100%. In social science, one rarely finds such powerful predictive models, but for this one, the R-squared is just under 70% (despite what the graph says).

Indonesia is the smartest country having a fertility rate above 2, and its average national IQ is 87. The dotted predictive curve intersects the red survival line around 86.3. This means that the typical country with an average IQ 87 or higher is going to see its native population shrink. The higher the IQ, the more population will collapse.

Europe and east Asia are facing catastrophe. No governmental incentives to marry and procreate are overcoming the lethargy among the younger generation in well-to-do countries. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africans are prolific, despite their relative poverty.

What is going on? Absorption in smartphones? 5G radiation? Too much vaccination? Too much ultra-processed foods and pesticides? Open borders? Explanations for one culture do not necessarily apply to another culture, not even the type of cultural undermining sponsored by the West's global rivals. The problem is everywhere. Your theory may be the correct one, and I would love to hear it!

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While we celebrate our friend Dan's recovery, we need to pray for another friend of our community: Granite Grok’s Nitzakhon. He is learning the hard way why America and other countries have a father’s rights movement. He too is a loyal patriot, and needs our prayers. Please remember him as well.