Some predictions for 2024

Economic and historic

I have been working overtime at the Excel machine, and I would like to share some predictions.

First, economically, we are looking at a yield curve inversion that is larger than anything America has experienced since 1981. In the past, that has signaled a recession about one year later. Here is the graph.

The blue and green curves are two flavors of the inversion of the yield curve. As you can see on the right side, they are at their respective lowest levels since 1981.

The red curve is half the year-over-year growth in real GDP per capita. (I halved it to make the scales somewhat comparable.) The ups and downs in the red curve follow, very roughly, those in the blue and green curves about one year later.

We can be expected to skirt along the edge of recession in the next quarter or so. This becomes relevant, especially for the 4th quarter of 2023, because of my predictive model for the presidential election. I discussed this on the old Wordpress blog in 2020 and 2021, and hope to return to it later this year.

Second, historically, we are about primed for a once-in-a-lifetime crisis-war for America. I discussed this too on the old Wordpress blog, predicting a major crisis for America centered around 2025.

Today I went back to visit the data and make it more precise. I examined the starting year and month (in blue below), and ending year and month (in orange below), for 1) the American Revolutionary War, 2) the American Civil War, and 3) America’s involvement in World War 2. It is stunning to plot those dates on a graph, and to see how closely they fall to straight lines.

If the pattern continues, America should undergo a major crisis-war beginning around February 2026 and continuing until around February 2028. God help us.